Live Experiment · 3 Models · Started Mar 17, 2026

3 models. Same markets. Who wins?

We're running three trading systems simultaneously — each with a different thesis about how prediction markets can be beaten. $1,000 each. Every trade logged in real time. Pick your side.

Model A

The Crowd

Follow consensus: YES ≥65%, NO ≤35%

$1,000.00

YTD

+0.0%

Record

0–0

Open

0

Model B — My Pick to Win

The Contrarian

Fade longshots: always NO when crowd says ≤30%

$1,000.00

YTD

+0.0%

Record

0–0

Open

0

Model C

The Arb

Trade Poly vs Kalshi gaps when they diverge ≥10pts

$1,000.00

YTD

+0.0%

Record

0–0

Open

0

Which Model Do You Think Wins?

30 days, $1,000 each. Pick your horse. Results revealed in the newsletter April 17.

The 3 Models

Model A · The Crowd

Follow the conviction

▸ Markets resolving within 14 days
▸ YES when prob ≥65%
▸ NO when prob ≤35%
▸ $100 flat sizing

The thesis: smart money has already priced it in.

Model B · The Contrarian

Sell the longshots

▸ Markets resolving within 14 days
▸ Always NO when prob ≤30%
▸ Pick the most liquid qualifying market
▸ $100 flat sizing

The thesis: crowds overprice unlikely events. Sell the expensive tickets.

Model C · The Arb

Trade the disagreement

▸ Only when Poly and Kalshi gap ≥10pts
▸ YES on the lagging (cheaper) platform
▸ Up to 30-day resolution window
▸ $100 flat sizing

The thesis: when two liquid markets disagree by 10+ points, one is wrong.

Experiment Log

Mar 11, 2026

Test 1 (single model) begins.

$1,000 starting balance. 65/35 conviction gate. Short-duration only (≤14 days). Flat $100/trade.

Mar 17, 2026

3-model experiment launches.

Test 1 archived (1W/0L, +$6.50). Three models start simultaneously at $1,000 each: Model A (Crowd), Model B (Contrarian), Model C (Arb). Each follows a distinct strategy. Results reviewed Apr 17, 2026.

Apr 17, 2026

3-model results reviewed — next phase TBD

Check back to see which model won and how the rules evolve.

Full Trade Ledger

📋

No trades logged yet. First picks will appear after the next pipeline run.

How This Works

30-day test periods. Rules can change.

Each test runs for 30 days with a fixed ruleset. After 30 days we review the results, publish the findings here, and update the rules for the next test. The system gets smarter over time — and you can see exactly how.

No retroactive edits. Ever.

Every trade is logged at the moment it's picked — before the outcome is known. The system runs on autopilot via GitHub Actions. We don't touch the ledger manually. Win or lose, it stays in the record.

P&L closes when the market resolves.

When a market resolves YES or NO, the trade closes automatically. Wins scale with the odds — a bold call at 70% pays less than a contrarian call at 30%. Losses are capped at $100. The goal: find systematic edge, not luck.

All trades are paper (hypothetical) and for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice and is not an invitation to copy trades. Prediction markets carry risk of total loss. We're publishing this experiment to be transparent about how the system works and to hold ourselves accountable to a verifiable track record. The rules are documented above. The ledger is unedited.