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Daily Prediction Markets Intelligence

The crowd just put money on it.
Here's what they know.

Every morning, The Prob surfaces the biggest movers, most interesting bets, and sharpest crowd signals from Polymarket and Kalshi. We cut the market-speak so you get straight to what matters.

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Market of the Day

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The Prob's take → The crowd has spoken. Check back soon for today's editorial take on this market.

The Prob Portfolio 3 Models — Who Wins?
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Model A
The Crowd
$1,000.00
YTD
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Model B — Editor's Pick
The Contrarian
$1,000.00
YTD
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0–0
Model C
The Arb
$1,000.00
YTD
+0.0%
Record
0–0
Today's Biggest Movers Markets on the Move
The Prob · Daily Brief
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⚡ The Spread The Crowd Disagrees With Itself

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Why The Prob Prediction Markets, Explained
Crowd wisdom, not punditry
Prediction markets pool the views of thousands of people with real money on the line. That's not an opinion. It's a probability. We surface what the crowd knows before the headlines catch up.
The movers matter most
A market sitting at 40% for a week is background noise. A market moving 10 points overnight? That's signal. We track the change, because that's where the real information lives.
Built for humans, not traders
You don't need a Polymarket account to find this useful. We translate market activity into plain language so you can think more clearly about what's actually likely to happen next.